Post-#Brexit Analysis

Brexit_WilliamBairamian.me

These were some thoughts I had on what was happening in the UK following the #Brexit vote:

I’m not an expert in British politics but this is what the latest #Brexit news looks like to me. It’s interesting that Gove, a Cameron-appointed minister who himself said he couldn’t be prime minister, has put himself in the running.The Leave side is reeling from Cameron calling their bluff on holding a referendum and then promptly putting the burden of dealing with the whole mess in the lap of his successor. Johnson either didn’t expect to win and he’s cravenly withdrawing now after leading a campaign that will wildly alter his country’s future or Gove was co-opted by Cameron to torpedo Johnson’s bid for the premiership (which depended heavily on his ally Gove) to which Johnson responded with his own maneuver by dropping out and putting the ball in Gove’s court. If Gove wins, he has to deal with the Brexit business with the divided party which he helped further divide. He also won’t have Johnson’s charisma at his disposal. I’m not convinced Gove is convinced of an EU exit and the other major candidate for premier, May, campaigned to Remain and although she said Brexit means Brexit, she also said invoking Article 50 should be delayed until the end of 2016. A lot can change in half a year, especially with the evident unwillingness of anybody to take full ownership of what they purportedly wanted. If either Gove or May balk and don’t go through with it, Johnson tries to ride in on a populist wave promising to do the will of the people. If either actually goes through with it, it’s hard to imagine the transition will be very smooth which Johnson may be calculating would be an opportunity for him to reenter the arena as the savior.

One other possibility: the Tories, both Leave and Remain sides, got together and realized the pandering of some in their party that led to the referendum was not what they really wanted or, in their estimation, what’s best for the country, so they created a ruse which will stall Brexit. If it’s the latter, Gove wins the leadership position and bears the cross of whatever they choose as the way to either nullify or ignore the vote.

Originally published on Facebook on June 30, 2016.